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New COVID-19 Modeling Shows Latest Surge Will Last Weeks, Not Days

PORTLAND, Ore. – New COVID-19 modeling forecasts that the latest surge will last well into August.

State Epidemiologist Dr. Dean Sidelinger says Oregon’s reproductive rate was 1.58 on July 14th. That’s more than double what it was in Mid-June.

If that current rate continues, new daily cases will increase to 390 cases per 100,000 people, or an estimated 1,170 daily cases and 95 new hospitalizations per day.

“Today’s modeling report, although sobering, confirms the importance of protecting ourselves and others by getting vaccinated against COVID-19,” says Sidelinger.

He says the silver lining is that vaccines are working. If you factor out fully vaccinated Oregonians, the state’s reproductive rate would be estimated at 3.18. Sidelinger calls that number “astonishing.”

The surge is thanks to the Delta variant, which now accounts for more than 80 percent of the state’s new cases.


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